2016 Federal Election Seats to Watch (Barton Deakin brief)

Written on the 23 June 2016

Currently, the Liberal-National Coalition holds 90 of the 150 seats, the Labor Party holds 55 seats and the five remaining seats are held by minor party representatives or independents.

Following redistributions and retirements, however, the Coalition goes into the election with a notional 89 seats, Labor 57, with four minor party members/independents.

The effect of this means that if the Coalition Government loses 14 seats or more, it will not be able to form Government with a majority. If Labor wins 19 seats, it will be able to form Government with a majority. If neither major party is able to form Government in its own right, the result will be a 'hung parliament', where major parties must form a majority with the support of the minor
parties/independents.

National two-party preferred polls
Essential (21 June) 49% Coalition 51% ALP
Newspoll (20 June) 50% Coalition 50% ALP
ReachTel (16 June) 51% Coalition 49% ALP
Fairfax Ipsos (16 June) 49% Coalition 51% ALP

Sportsbet (23 June) odds for the sworn in Government: $1.15 Coalition - $5.50 ALP

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Source: Barton Deakin

Image: thepublicapology.net